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Key Dates/Data Releases
10/8: Producer Price Index
10/9: JOLTS
10/10: Consumer Price Index, Treasury budget
10/11: Import and export prices
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Market Week: October 7, 2019 |
The Markets (as of market close October 4, 2019)
Stocks and long-term bond yields fell again last week as fears of an economic slowdown, both here and abroad, worried investors. Despite a solid labor report, unfavorable reports from domestic and global manufacturers, and an expanding trade deficit apparently shook investors. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a weekly gain, bolstered by gains in information technology shares. The Global Dow was hit the hardest, falling almost 2.0%, followed by the small caps of the Russell 2000, the Dow, and the S&P 500, each of which posted weekly losses for the third consecutive week.
Oil prices fell again last week, closing at $53.01 per barrel by late Friday afternoon, down from the prior week's price of
$56.00. The price of gold (COMEX) rose last week, closing at $1,510.30 by late Friday afternoon, up from the prior week's price of $1,503.10. The national
average retail regular gasoline price was $2.642 per gallon on September 30, 2019,
$0.012 less than the prior week's price and $0.224 less than a year ago.
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Market/Index | 2018
Close | Prior Week | As of 10/4 | Weekly Change | YTD
Change |
DJIA | 23327.46 | 26820.25 | 26573.72 | -0.92%
| 13.92%
|
Nasdaq | 6635.28 | 7939.63 | 7982.47 | 0.54%
| 20.30%
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S&P
500 | 2506.85 | 2961.79 | 2952.01 | -0.33%
| 17.76%
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Russell
2000 | 1348.56 | 1520.48 | 1500.70 | -1.30%
| 11.28%
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Global
Dow | 2736.74 | 3019.31 | 2964.37 | -1.82%
| 8.32%
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Fed. Funds target
rate | 2.25%-2.50% | 1.75%-2.00% | 1.75%-2.00% | 0 bps | -50
bps |
10-year
Treasuries | 2.68% | 1.67% | 1.51% | -16 bps | -117 bps |
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it
does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark
performance of specific investments.
Last Week's Economic News
- September saw 136,000 new jobs added while the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 3.5% — its lowest rate since December 1969. Over the month, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 275,000 to 5.8 million. Job growth has
averaged 161,000 per month thus far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain
of 223,000 in 2018. In September, new jobs were added in health care (39,000 jobs), professional and business services (34,000 jobs), government (22,000 jobs), and transportation and warehousing (16,000 jobs). The labor force participation rate held at 63.2% in September. The employment-population ratio, at 61.0%, inched up 0.1 percentage point over the month but was up by
0.6 percentage point over the year. Last month, average hourly earnings fell $0.01 to $28.09 after increasing $0.11 in August. Over the past 12 months ended in September, hourly earnings have increased 2.9%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours in September.
- The trade deficit increased by $0.9 billion in August to $54.9 billion. August exports were $207.9 billion, $0.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $262.8 billion, $1.3 billion more than July imports. The August figures showed surpluses in goods trades with South and Central America ($5.0 billion), Hong Kong ($2.2 billion), and the United Kingdom ($0.6 billion). Deficits were recorded with China ($28.9 billion), the European Union ($15.6 billion), Mexico ($8.4 billion), and Japan ($6.1 billion).
- Purchasing managers reported an uptick in production in September, but not enough to save the manufacturing sector from experiencing its worst quarter since 2009. The IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) posted 51.1 in September, slightly higher than 50.3 in August. According to the report, "Expansions
in production and new orders remained only modest, meaning
firms were encouraged to increase their workforce numbers only
tentatively. Business confidence remained relatively gloomy
due to muted demand conditions."
- Respondents in the Institute for Supply Management survey also saw a slowing manufacturing sector. The results from the latest report included a decrease in the purchasing managers index in September from the prior month. New orders rose slightly, while production, employment, deliveries, new export orders, and inventories each declined. Prices rose marginally. On the whole, respondents noted that demand and consumption contracted last month.
- In the services sector, purchasing managers were dovish with respect to growth in September. According to the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®, business activity, new orders, and employment fell in September from August. Prices increased in September for the 28th consecutive month. Some of the non-manufacturing (services) industries reporting include utilities, retail trade, construction, accommodation & food services, transportation & warehousing, and health care & social assistance.
- For the week ended September 28, there were 219,000 claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured
unemployment claims remained at 1.1% for the week ended September 21. The advance number of those receiving
unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended September 21 was 1,651,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the prior week's level, which was revised up by 6,000.
Eye on the Week Ahead
This week, inflationary measures are in the news with reports on the costs of consumer goods and services in September. In August, both consumer prices and producer prices increased a scant 0.1%, respectively. For the year, the Consumer Price Index is up 1.7% — well below the Fed's target of 2.0%.
Data sources: News items are based on reports from
multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and
are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as
government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market
data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury
(Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market
Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver);
Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources
deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or
completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein
constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and
should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee
of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of
principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be
successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a
price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.
The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of
500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ
Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on
the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index
composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally
weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market
indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
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| | Jeremy Torgerson is an investment adviser representative with nVest Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser that does not provide tax or legal advice. Material presented herein is for informational use only by agents of existing and prospective customers of nVest Advisors, LLC, and is not a specific investment recommendation. nVest Advisors, LLC does not recommend specific investment advice without a signed service agreement with each client. This information is presented for education purposes only, and publication of this material does not represent or imply the recipient or reader has any fiduciary client relationship with the firm. Though information was prepared from sources believed reliable, nVest Advisors, LLC, does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. nVest Advisors, LLC is an investment adviser firm registered in the states of Texas and Colorado. nVest Advisors, LLC's corporate headquarters is located at 420 Tumbleweed Drive, Brighton, CO 80601. Company mailing address is PO Box 554, Brighton, CO 80601. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This communication is strictly intended for individuals residing in the state(s) of CO and TX. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident outside the specific states referenced. | Prepared by Broadridge Advisor Solutions Copyright 2025. To opt-out of future emails, please click here. |
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